Don’t analyse ‘real chance’ by numbers

See Mansfield J in DZADQ v Minister for Immigration (2014) 143 ALD 659 at [65]:

The Tribunal was satisfied that the appellant was as a Shia Muslim at risk of serious harm by reason of his religion. The Tribunal however classified that risk as being too remote. In my view, the essential link in the chain of reasoning connecting the two findings was missing. Besides quoting that there are over 40 million Shia Muslims in Pakistan, the Tribunal, in its published reasons, did not consider the evidence that underpinned its ultimate finding that the risk was remote. In my view, its task was not done by the numerical analysis. It should have considered the appellants’ particular circumstances. If it be the case that there is nothing to distinguish the appellant from other Shia Muslims in Pakistan, provided the country information (common to both the delegate and the Tribunal) stands, it is hard to see how the conclusion of the Tribunal is sustainable. If there were some small or local sectarian violence, the picture the country information indicated would not be so dramatic or compelling. To the contrary, the picture appears to be that it is coordinated, pervasive and effective, and the Taliban are presented as a cogent and broadly spread instrument of its application. It should not be adequate, in the face of such data, to say in effect that although a significant number of Shia Muslims will be severely harmed or killed by that pervasive targeted violence because you as a target group are numerous, the chances of any particular one of you being as harmed or killed is not a real one or is fanciful.

 

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